Estimating births using GP registration data

A technical note and subsequent Update on the use of General Practitioner (GP) registration data to estimate the number of live births occurring in London. The technical note presents analysis into the relationships between GP registration and birth estimates data, which indicates that GP registrations can be used to predict birth estimates with a good level of accuracy at local auhtority level. Using the approach outlined in the note, a strong indication of births can be obtained up to eleven months ahead of the release of official data. The note presents birth estimates for the year to mid-2015 based on analysis of GP registration data and explores the likely accuracy of such estimates. Intelligence Unit Update 04-2016 compares the birth predictions made in the technical note with subsequently released official estimates. The accuracy of the results is compared with that obtained from standard projection methodologies employed by the GLA and ONS.  The Update presents estimates of births for the year to mid-2016 based upon recent GP registration data obtained by the GLA. Update February 2023 Estimates of recent births using an updated version of this approach are now available here

The code used to produce these estimates is available on GitHub.