Demographic projections - research outputs

This page contains results of recent projections produced by the GLA that have been designated as research outputs rather than as a full entry in the GLA's annual series of projections. Update - 23 October 2026 In response to requests from members of the Central and Local Insight Partnership Population Sub-Group, the GLA has published a set of housing-led projections incorporating housing assumptions based on the NPPF standard method for calculating housing need. These outputs are provided for research purposes only and are not intended to inform decision making. Three variants have been included with annual housing delivery set at: 100, 75, and 50 percent of the standard method need figures. Assumed housing delivery has been equally split across each local authority's constituent LSOA areas. Outputs are included for all local authority districts and MSOA areas in England and Wales (housing assumptions within Wales are based on an average of ten years of previous delivery). More information about the GLA's housing-led population projections is available on the official outputs page here. Update - 29 May 2026 An updated set of trend-based projection outputs have been added. These include adjustments to the underlying estimates of population and international migration of children to address recently identified issues with the official series. Update - 6 August 2025 Initial 2024-based trend projection outputs have been added. For more information, please see this blog post. The decision not to give a full release to the 2023-based projections was a consequence of problems with official population estimates used as inputs to the models; they are set to be updated later in 2025 once updated estimates are released by ONS. These outputs were produced in April 2025 as part of the population and pupil projection services that the GLA offers to local authorities in London and are presented here to: · Indicate the potential scale of impacts that recent updates and revisions to Long-Term International Migration (LTIM) estimates for the UK may have on the final projections. · Demonstrate the results of a newly introduced methodology for projecting future fertility rates.

Data and Resources

Additional Info

Field Value
Source https://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/demographic-projections-research-outputs-20g51
Last Updated November 4, 2026, 15:37 (UTC)
Created October 22, 2025, 11:57 (UTC)
GUID 20g51
Language
dcat_issued 2025-06-25T13:07:49.839Z
dcat_modified 2026-10-22T23:39:45.450Z
dcat_publisher_name GLA Demography
harvest_object_id 43acb126-bb5e-4efa-9829-d555e82d0bc2
harvest_source_id a3e8ccdb-5c53-4b4b-9db7-ae23b3e3e29f
harvest_source_title london